tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post8221751409589116929..comments2024-01-27T00:32:05.370+00:00Comments on Paul Canning: The only poll that countspaulocanninghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17499916652508144662noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-90018058694720946972008-09-08T22:28:00.000+01:002008-09-08T22:28:00.000+01:00I agree. I'm not disagreeing! But you wouldn&#...I agree. I'm not disagreeing! But you wouldn't know any of this from the constant reporting of just the national polls.<br><br>+ this is just polling remember. B.O. has far more money and people on the ground (thanks to the web!) and the Democrat registrations (which I understand aren't counted in polling?) are extremely strong.<br><br>I don't discount anything but a dispassionate, non-partisan analysis has to have Obama to win, even now. We're in the final stretch and if B.O. was that awful why is he still slightly ahead?<br><br>This *should reverberate for conservatives because - as some commentators have noted - who do you need to win? which voters? And will being negative with B.O. win it for you?Paul Canninghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17499916652508144662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-33899412327276674592008-09-08T22:00:00.000+01:002008-09-08T22:00:00.000+01:00Current EC is (counting toss-ups to who's ahea...Current EC is (counting toss-ups to who's ahead) is Obama 273 and Mc 265, but that counts BO taking colorado and new mexico (9/5 resp.)<br><br>It would be very easy to flip either of thoseLord Nazhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00251537214808629536noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-50826379584976911802008-09-08T21:50:00.000+01:002008-09-08T21:50:00.000+01:00Thanks for that, it's interestinghttp://www.fi...Thanks for that, it's interesting<br><br>http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ has an interesting analysis of convention polling bounce.<br><br>I've never said it's definite for Obama, just that looking at the electoral vote you would have to say McCain is working uphill - and this gets very little reporting. RCP has Obama ahead in the electoral vote still. I was talking about the UK but I observe this as well in the US reporting I see.Paul Canninghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17499916652508144662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-19222766288316186142008-09-08T20:33:00.000+01:002008-09-08T20:33:00.000+01:00Paul, the Intrade market is in flux constantly. M...Paul, the Intrade market is in flux constantly. McCain was actually leading Obama earlier today. <br><br>Look at this page tracking the trend of each candidate on Intrade.<br><br>http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/09/market_moves.html<br><br>Also, sorry for saying your analysis sucks. That sort of rhetoric, while true, isn't helpful.Barryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00589029086998638991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-81507887970862032332008-09-08T15:59:00.000+01:002008-09-08T15:59:00.000+01:00Er, are we looking at the same website??Says 51.6 ...Er, are we looking at the same website??<br>Says 51.6 vs 48.4 (ask) right now ..<br><br>Look at the electoral vote on intrade.Paul Canninghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17499916652508144662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-10979837445270081472008-09-08T14:56:00.000+01:002008-09-08T14:56:00.000+01:00Paul, today Intrade has Obama at 50 and McCain at ...Paul, today Intrade has Obama at 50 and McCain at 49.1.<br><br>You were saying???<br><br>Like I said, your analysis sucks.Barryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00589029086998638991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-34691539861260145472008-09-07T21:49:00.000+01:002008-09-07T21:49:00.000+01:00The article I link to has just such a discussion o...The article I link to has just such a discussion on exit polls. This isn't about exit polls.<br><br>Follow the debate on non-partisan sites such as these - maybe with a special focus on those actually betting money on the outcome. whichever way you look at it the evidence points one way. Which evidence suggest otherwise? I'm seriously interested if you have some links about this.Paul Canninghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17499916652508144662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-13881218671287631302008-09-07T21:12:00.000+01:002008-09-07T21:12:00.000+01:00Threshold sensors are notoriously variable. The el...Threshold sensors are notoriously variable. The electoral map could change overnight. If you consider only the states that are locked up for each candidate and not just leaning one way or the other, the race is wide open.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-2809280715172681742008-09-07T21:06:00.000+01:002008-09-07T21:06:00.000+01:00Which actually strongly suggests that a poll of 10...Which actually strongly suggests that a poll of 1000 people cannot accurately determine what 100+ million will do in a secret ballot.<br><br>Exit polls are always wrong, why? :) (have you ever answered an exit poller? I havn't, simply because it's not their business and more conservatives than progressives will not answer them)Lord Nazhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00251537214808629536noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-8718896893281075222008-09-07T20:19:00.000+01:002008-09-07T20:19:00.000+01:00I just added this linkWhich even more strongly sug...I just added <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html" rel="nofollow">this link</a><br><br>Which even more strongly suggests accuracy in the predictions.Paul Canninghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17499916652508144662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-13541388628400373322008-09-07T19:09:00.000+01:002008-09-07T19:09:00.000+01:00I have no doubt that many non-conservatives say th...I have no doubt that many non-conservatives say they will vote for him (and they will be overly represented in the poll because of the national demographic on the R/D divide); his loss of support will be because not all of those will actually vote, not just the bradley effect that they claim to support him over racist fears.<br><br>Also, by the time of the actual vote, people do change their mind because of non-racists reasons.Lord Nazhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00251537214808629536noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-31849387869706314882008-09-07T18:56:00.000+01:002008-09-07T18:56:00.000+01:00If it's as you say, why would people tell poll...If it's as you say, why would people tell pollsters they're voting for him?<br><br>This is an academic, non-partisan point.Paul Canninghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17499916652508144662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-53325854153225771532008-09-07T18:51:00.000+01:002008-09-07T18:51:00.000+01:00I'm not saying it for the 'bradley effect&...I'm not saying it for the 'bradley effect' but for the 'buyer's remorse' effect :)<br><br>the racism was a joke; it's hard to understand why people (not you) think that white people would vote against Barry because of his skin but not his policies... he's got no shot at winning any conservative votes and yet all we will hear is racismLord Nazhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00251537214808629536noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-70499088182903380042008-09-07T18:41:00.000+01:002008-09-07T18:41:00.000+01:00Kerry: "the majority of the 2004 election cyc...Kerry: "the majority of the 2004 election cycle"?!?<br><br>So far for Obama it's <b>all</b> the 'cycle'!<br><br>The people who bet money on outcomes have a difference with you.<br><br>Hardly 'sucky' analysis?<br><br>However Lord Nazh does have a point [Bradley effect]. Although, as I say, those putting their money down disagree and don't think this will effect the result.<br><br>Barry: Try taking your partisan hat off for five seconds.Paul Canninghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17499916652508144662noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-10377508002795169872008-09-07T18:01:00.000+01:002008-09-07T18:01:00.000+01:00Very true Barry :)Also; the ONE (tm) won't tak...Very true Barry :)<br><br>Also; the ONE (tm) won't take Ohio, Nevada, Colorado or Virginia... all that racism you know (heh)Lord Nazhhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00251537214808629536noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-387284174922871714.post-83733825440076810772008-09-07T17:46:00.000+01:002008-09-07T17:46:00.000+01:00John F. Kerry lead the electoral count for the maj...John F. Kerry lead the electoral count for the majority of the 2004 election cycle, and lost.<br><br>And, what makes you qualified to make predictions?<br><br>Biden's biggest problem is that he's just not likable. <br><br>Gore beat Bush in the debates but Bush got more out of them because Bush was likable and Gore was not.<br><br>Your analysis sucks.Barryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00589029086998638991noreply@blogger.com